Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time

TL;DR

• 1

  SpaceX's next stock driver may be raw compute, not rockets: Baker says the biggest variables over the next year are how fast SpaceX can bring gigawatts online and what Cursor does with that capacity, citing a Google deal that values compute at about $50 billion per gigawatt.

• 2

  Public markets can stomach long investment cycles better than VCs admit: Using Tesla and Amazon as examples, Baker argues that quarterly results still matter, but public investors often tolerate heavy capex when they believe the long-term infrastructure story.

• 3

  Being a 'token factory' is already a huge business: On whether SpaceX needs to become a full AWS-style cloud, Baker's view is simple: producing tokens is more than enough for the next 5 to 10 years, and the industry mainly just needs more capacity.

• 4

  Meta's asset base is massive, but monetization is still the question: Baker says Meta's EV to net PP&E ratio implies real market skepticism, because despite all the GPUs and data centers, management has not yet shown a clear AI product with the traction to justify the spend.

• 5

  Retail investors are not the joke professionals think they are: Baker rejects 'retail' as a pejorative, saying retail favorites have outperformed many pros and noting that more than 10,000 SpaceX employees also bought in the IPO, which could tighten supply.

• 6

  The AI bottleneck trade is fading, and enduring franchise value is the next hunt: After a year of chasing obscure supply chain choke points, Baker says the better question now is which companies keep lasting power once the shortages ease, from token infrastructure to maybe even orbital compute.