Anthropic Files For An IPO: Rapid Reaction — With M.G. Siegler

TL;DR

• 1

  Anthropic may have beaten OpenAI to the punch: Anthropic announced a confidential S-1 filing first, even though reports had suggested OpenAI might file last week.

• 2

  The real risk for OpenAI is narrative, not paperwork: Siegler argues public investors will compare Anthropic and OpenAI directly, and right now Anthropic looks better on growth, valuation, and possibly profitability.

• 3

  Anthropic's financial profile has changed the story: The old pitch was that OpenAI had the bigger top line while Anthropic might have better margins later, but reports now suggest Anthropic is also surging on revenue and may have already touched profitability.

• 4

  OpenAI's 900 million MAUs may not be enough to carry the case: OpenAI can still point to massive consumer usage through ChatGPT, but that number has stalled while Google just said Gemini is also at 900 million MAUs.

• 5

  Going public is also about staying fundable: Even after Anthropic's reported $65 billion raise and OpenAI's $122 billion raise, both companies still face enormous compute and infrastructure bills, including talk that Anthropic could pay up to $15 billion a year to use SpaceX's Colossus data center.

• 6

  Index inclusion could distort everything: Siegler notes rule changes may let giants like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI enter major indices faster, forcing mutual funds and other big investors to buy regardless of the usual valuation comps.